Apple’s anti-Flash debacle–yes, debacle–is well known at this point in the post-iPad announcement era.
Now, Virgin makes an announcement about their move away from Flash (and, not to be subjective, any possibility of using Microsoft’s Silverlight) ostensibly to broaden the availability of their Website. I’m not saying they’re doing this to purposely drop-kick Adobe’s Flash which has had a great run for some time now. But, with their expanding iPhone (and soon iPad) platform, Apple’s decision is potentially going to lead developers towards other solutions.
One does exist: JavaScript and CSS. But, one the biggest uses for Flash (and the main reason it’s gotten so mainstream) is support for video–also the most likely reason Apple won’t allow it on it’s mobile platform OS (beyond games). HTML5′s potential for rich media, namely video support.
The HTML5 standard is still a ways away (the target date is 2012). But, as with previous versions, nothing will stop Microsoft, Mozilla, and others from rolling preliminary support into the coming versions of their browsers. Of course, you can be sure Apple will take as long as possible to roll it into Safari…at least on the iPhone.
If the industry pushes this (to the demise of Adobe), Apple’s going to be in a corner. Will that matter? Likely not, knowing Mr. Jobs and his disdain for following the pack. But, there’s going to be a point, sometime in the future, when Jobs and his disciples will need to stop holding that last tiny hill against the non-Apple waves threatening to submerge it.
Still, here’s hoping the push towards HTML5 continues or even accelerates. Dealing with plug-in versions and of course yet another plug-in to check for and support. Don’t get me wrong, though, Flash is still where it’s going to be when it comes to animation and flashy movie sites. JS and CSS can only go so far (though they CAN go far). Will that hurt Adobe? Maybe but who cares? Their support (version 10 was a pain in the ass for people who offer Flash controls for file downloads) and their profiteering off Flash ($699 just to be able to work with it? Maybe you shouldn’t have given it away to the end users…) has built up their egos a bit too much. They were better when they were still fighting Macromedia (remember them? They made Flash) and Quark. They tried. Now, they rule.
kn
