Ken’s Blog

So, I’m back from SF and a weeklong adventure in Game Dev land. Maybe it’s because it was the second time through for me but it didn’t really hold the same sort of magic the first one did. Part of it might also be due to the fact that there wasn’t a lot in the way of revelations/announcements. Here are some highlights:

1) The big new announcement: OnLive miniconsole made its debut. It’s basically Slingbox for consoles except that OnLive hosts the source and you just get the video streamed down to your TV. They handle PC and consoles. Pros: No need to upgrade with each new console release; no need to buy games you’ll play for a short time. Cons: It requires a lot of bandwidth for a smooth ride; if the service dies, you’re gonna have to go and get those consoles and games anyway. Time will tell if it’ll grab enough of a slice of the console market (PC too)  to survive.

2) The economic slowdown/apocalypse had an affect on the conference as you’d expect but it wasn’t crazy. The summits and tutorials (Monday and Tuesday) were definitely quieter (seemed like a third less people there) but the main conference itself seemed as crowded as last time. A couple of spaces were empty on the expo floor (big ones). There were still mo-cap companies galore but definitely fewer than last time. Jillians was barely booked…I could actually have lunch there!

3) NeuroSky was there but been-there-done-that.

4) Scotland, Bavaria (Germany), and other regions and countries are pushing for game development investment (couldn’t miss those Scots and their booth).

5) Game development education programs are truly gaining legitimacy. Whether it was the number of wide-eyed, awkward students wandering the expo asking questions and finding the demos “awesome” or if it Peter Molyneux plugging Lionhead’s program for students and recent grads, what was once some vague excuse to make games rather than study classics or physics is now a legitimate career with a path starting in college. So much for my degree…do they take trade-ins?

6) According to Nintendo, the game industry grew ONLY because of the Wii and DS. I guess it’s good, then, that the DSi’s coming out or else we might see a mini-game industry deflation! At least we all got a free game out of Iwata’s talk!

7) Innovation in the game industry is still rampant but I think it’ll be less obvious (i.e. evolution more than revolution as cliche as that sounds). Whether it’s the sculpted cliffs of Halo Wars or improved AI emphasis or better indie games, it’ll come but slowly.

The W is still one of the (if not THE) gathering place after hours. These guys need a bigger place to meet…

All in all, it was a great experience. I doubt I’ll make it next year but I’ll definitely be back some day. One thing’s for sure, though, the game industry isn’t going to be hurt too bad…people need entertainment more than ever at a time like this. I just hope it won’t be too long before something really great comes out…

kn

Gamasutra’s reporting that EA’s decided NOT to use DRM on the upcoming The Sims 3 release. Surprising considering what they’ve done in the last couple years and especially considering how much money they’re probably hoping/expecting to get with the release of that game.

It’s simple, EA, just do this:

1) If an internet connection exists, authenticate the CD Key (Activision/Infinity Ward have done this with the Call of Duty series when it came to multiplayer). If more than one session is active, bounce them.

2) If no internet connection exists, require the original CD (with the correct Key of course).

It’s less disruptive to legitimate customers and enough of a hassle for the “hobbyist” pirates. You’ll never find a solution that permanently halts die-hard pirates (biometrics?) but at least this balances the needs of the publisher with the wants of the consumer.

kn

It seems Savannah’s trying to expand on Atlanta’s game dev draw by offering free rent (in their game dev center) for a year along with a subsidy after that.

After seeing Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil, I sorta had a hankering to visit the place but now…maybe it’s worth tossing up a shingle and making games in the Georgian summer heat, assuming they don’t run out of water…

kn

Gamasutra has an interesting contest going about the future of gaming. I submitted my entry but I thought it’d be interesting to consider more than just a single tech or game trend. Take a look and feel free to comment on what YOU think would be the future of gaming in 11 years.

Gamasutra’s reporting that SquareEnix has decided to start supporting Steam with it’s new releases in North America and Europe. While I don’t recall ever buying a SquareEnix game (at least for PC), I’m taking this as yet another sign that digital distribution is maturing into a standard outlet for developers. I can’t speak to Valve’s selection criteria but given the lower cost of doing business, I can imagine it would be easier for a smaller developer to get their indie title up and out to the publich without being hampered by costly distribution deals with established players in the boxed retail channels. Not to say boxed retail is a dying breed (I do like getting my hands on software) but I think we’re nearing the hump where we could see some serious pain for retail outlets as they see game sales decline in favor of instant gratification (lazy) deliveries of games via network fiber. Plus, with networks getting faster and bandwidth availability high, there are few limitations for digital download (except for, maybe, power for those data centers).

In other news, it turns out InstantAction decided to throw the switch and take down the beta sign. Another outlet for indie game developers, Garage Games has been doing it’s Torque thing for a few years now. Better still, they’ve been improving that sucker for those years and barely increased the price (up from $100 to $295) for an indie license. I played around with it ages ago and it’s pretty solid for most single player and non-massively multiplayer games. I’m sure someone could take a look at the netcode and figure out a way to make it MMOG-capable, if they haven’t already. The only downside is the same downside of anyone selecting a platform they haven’t developed for in the past: ramp-up time.

InstantAction is built upon a new Web-based engine that relies on Flash but integrated well with the IA site. It definitely proves that you can offer a boxed retail experience via the Web but it turns out the Web’s “everything must be free” mentality is also a carry over. Hard to say, though, if a certain standard is set or if a method of peer-rating is implemented so that the gamers can self-police the games out there, that a game offered for a fee might still be successful. Still, you’ve gotta love all the options out there for game devs now…lots of room for creativity.

kn

The Wall Street Journal reported today that Amazon’s opened the doors to its Casual Games store…well, the beta anyway. 600 titles at $10 or less!

It seems casual games have come to the fore pretty quickly and have reason to be successful: everyone wants to play games and the US is saturated with computers that can handle casual games with low footprints just fine. The question is, how saturated is the market at this point?

The Casual Games Association (when they’d get one of those?) reported in 2006 that by 2008 the market would reach $1.5 billion worldwide, $690 million of that in the US. By way of comparison, the not-so-casual game market reached almost $11 million in 2008 with $701 million of that being PC games.

If you assume the PC game market (non-casual) represents a portion of the potential market (i.e. maybe 2-3 of every 20 people out there are non-casual gamers), you’re talking about a huge potential market. I know I’m pulling numbers out of thin air here but if $701 million in sales represents an average of $30/game, you’re talking about over 20 million units moved. So, with equal saturation, the casual game market could see more like 200 million units moved in the US alone. Of course, you have to account for the fact that these suckers cost a hell of a lot less, probably averaging between $5 and $10 a pop. So, you could be looking at a potential market of $1.5 billion with today’s population.

Consider, though, that each generation brings more computer-savvy people and means the average computer per person will increase as everyone wants and gets a computer in addition to the one they’re likely driving at work.

So, back to Amazon. I love Amazon but while I’m sure they’re going to expand the market a bit I can’t imagine it’s going to be significant. They’re more likely to cannibalize the sales of other players out there. Yet, they represent a significant exposure potential (not everyone’s heard of PlayFirst and other casual game sites) but Microsoft, Yahoo, and AOL have their own casual games markets/portals. I think we’re looking at a mixed bag. You’ve got die-hards like me who wander the crowded halls of Amazon.com who will possibly be interested in a purchase (though I also wander PlayFirst.com as well).

In the end, with Amazon’s hat-toss into the casual ring, I think we’re going to see the peak of sales/distribution in this area. Google could get involved and change that but there are few other players that could get the job done (and would bother in this market). What you won’t see peak, though, is development and sales. Casual games have exploded but I think there’s a lot more distance to cover before you’ll see this market slow down. It’s easier and cheaper to throw out some casual games (have you seen all the iterations of Diner Dash? FFS…) than AAA titles so you can win on volume.

Time will tell…

kn

Gamasutra published a little news bite that created a minor outcry. It seems older gamers were being told they would no longer be interested in fantasy and using their imagination.

I responded with what I’d like to think was common sense but I’m sure it won’t be taken that way…this is the Internet after all. Everyone’s got an opinion and even the underrepresented get represented.

Even so, the article points out a coming truth: the games market will start seeing openings that are blue ocean opportunities for game developers. We’ve already seen Nintendo get some play with BrainAge. But, I think it’s less about catering to the “geriatric” mentality and more about offering more compelling content for a maturing demographic that has seen it all. Does it mean we want to see more “economic or political simulations”? Well, you might not but someone else might. I love economic sims but the Tycoon submarket got trashed by a bunch of dime-store devs that tried to milk it dry. Don’t give me an accurate depiction of the US economic model for the 1980’s or something stupid like that. Give me escapism with a touch of realism so that selling widgets for $2 million a piece doesn’t show up in a game I’m playing. It’s a commodity dammit.

Anyway, it’ll be interesting to see how the industry adjusts. Gamers in my age group are at the point where they’ve got kids who are getting old enough to want to play consoles and platformer type games (LEGO’s got a big chunk of this). Sure that’ll skew things. Though, I don’t know about you but after a while, playing LEGO Star Wars on my own gets pretty damned boring. I’d rather save the world (Fallout 3), trash it (GTA IV) or buy it (Capitalism 2, The Guild 2, etc.). In other words…

Have fun,

kn